August 13th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

Man, what a week we’ve got going. While I’m getting around to some areas, trying to talk markets, I’m seeing much different crops than what I have at home. While we have good crops that could be great with some finishing rain, I was in Minnesota on Tuesday, and it was green as can be everywhere you look. While some farmers feel they’ve had too much of a good thing, the abundance of rain likely creates better overall production in that part of the world.

In the eastern corn belt, which I’ll lump much of Illinois in, we need rain. It’s gotten quite dry in the areas that missed out on the pop-up showers. Without additional rain, our bean yields could suffer in a big way. Corn shouldn’t hurt nearly as badly, but it could definitely use another shower.

It’s still hot around home, with temperatures in the low 90s. It would be nice if we had more moisture, as this heat is likely making things go backwards. Stay in touch with what’s happening around your place. For more info on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0  

The corn market took the USDA report as one would expect, while beans posted a strong rally. With a massive increase in production for corn and a drop for beans, these markets headed in opposite directions on the day. The lack of a trade deal with China provided headwinds pre-report, but with beans rallying as they did, we might see some strength moving forward. Outside markets should have provided a muted bias:

• The US Dollar settled down .434 at 97.927
• September crude oil settled down .79 at 63.17
• The DOW settled 474 points higher at 44,558      

CORN

The corn market got smoked with a bearish USDA report, but settled off the lows. September corn closed 13 ½ lower at $3.71 ½. This was 13 ¼ off the high and 3 ¾ off the low. Corn export inspections came in on Monday at 1.492, which was above expectations and reinforced the USDA’s increase in export in Tuesday’s report. Good/excellent fell 1% to 72% which is what we naturally see this time of year and is to be expected.

The USDA report was as bearish as I can remember an August report in my career. With a yield jump of 7.8 Bu./A. up to 188.8, we had plenty of bearish input. However, the USDA also added over 2 million planted acres, so harvested acreage went up 1.9 ma. Given usage was raised a whopping 545 million bushels, carry ‘only’ went up to 2.117 bbu. Exports were adjusted 200 mb higher, ethanol went up 100, and feed and residual were adjusted 250 mb higher. Given that the USDA dropped the expected cash price to $3.90, their assumption is that with the additional production, we’ll see big demand increases. Old-crop came in at 1.305 bbu, which was down 35 mb. This was due to a drop for ethanol but a big increase for exports, which we expected.

Overall, when you take a step back and look at this corn situation, you have to admire how strong demand is both in the US and world balance sheets. For us to see a 188.8 yield with 97.3 ma planted and show a carry-out of 2.1 bbu, it is interesting to say the least. Given we’re seeing the bean situation improve, if we could see beans post a rally on this drier-biased finish in the ECB, it may lend support to corn as we begin considering the ’26 acreage situation. With a 17-million-acre gap this year, it’s tough to assume we won’t narrow it significantly, which could put pressure on 2026 weather to be as good or better than we’ve seen this year; a tall order. December corn was down 13 ¼ on Tuesday, settling at $3.94 ½.                        

December ’25 Corn Chart

SOYBEANS

Soybeans were heading in the opposite direction with the USDA report lending a more bullish set of numbers. September beans were up 21 on Tuesday at $10.12 ¾. This was 2 off the high and 39 off the low! Soybean meal was up .6 at 281.4, while soy oil was up .05 at 53.24. The weekly inspections showed beans at 518k, which was a big number but a bit below a week ago. The good/excellent rating came in at 68%, which was a 1% decrease from a week ago. The report showed old-crop bean stocks down 20 mb due to 10 mb more usage for both crush and exports. With a carry-in of 330 mb, the new-crop balance sheet tightened up as well. Given we saw lower acreage of 8-0.9 planted(2.5 ma crop) and harvested coming in at 80.1 (2.4 ma drop), the yield of 53.6 wasn’t enough to stem the bullish enthusiasm.

Taking the stocks on new-crop down to 290 mb, the trade seemed energized, especially as Mother Nature seems to be throwing a monkey-wrench at areas like IL, IN, and OH, which can’t seem to buy a rain. I’m glad we’ve been patient on these beans even without much bullish news to get excited about. For those who feel confident you have a big bean crop coming, I would have offers in place, but for me, I want to see how this weather plays out. I’m not so sure we’ll be done rallying too quickly if we can’t get rain in the ECB, since we don’t have much room to drop yield with the balance sheet this snug. On Tuesday, November beans closed 21 ½ higher at $10.32 ¾.  As I said, I’m going to give this bean market a little time and see if we can get a little more upside.       

November ‘25 Soybean chart

Matt Bennett
mbennett@agmarket.net
Work: 815-665-0462
Twitter: @chief321