May 13th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

We are finally close to running. With a few sunny and warmer days, we’re finally drying out enough to run. It appears we have some replant to do as well. The last corn we planted before the big rain a couple of weeks ago was on Saturday-and it looks pretty rough. Given a decent forecast, we’re hopeful we can get it in the ground before it rains again-along with the rest of the corn we have to plant. The first few days of corn we planted looks good finally, but emergence wasn’t what I would call perfect by any means. After walking it and having one of the Beck’s guys check it out, it appears the most we’ll have to do is spot a little into the ponds. The weather has been improving at least, but it sure needed to-with cold temps and frequent rain basically since we started planting. Keep me posted on your progress-I hope you’re getting along fine. For on AgMarket, click here. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

The USDA report on Tuesday gave a big boost to the wheat market, while corn and beans also rallied but nothing like we saw for wheat. With the first look at the new-crop balance sheets, both corn and beans saw tighter stocks ahead while wheat production was forecasted to dip over 400mb on the year. The biggest news of the week, however, is likely the meeting between President Trump and Xi, which will be watched closely for potential trade implications. Outside markets should have provided a mixed bias:

• The US Dollar settled up .356 at 98.180.
• June crude oil settled up 4.11 at 102.18.
• The DOW settled up 77 points at 49,869.

Corn – The corn market is back on the rally after last week’s losses. July corn closed up 4 ¾ at $4.80. This was 1 ¾ off the high and 7 ¼ off the low. Corn export inspections were below expectations at 1.691 mmt. This is still a big number, which should reinforce a move higher for exports, but the USDA stayed with their number for now of 3.3 bbu. 25% of the crop is planted, which compares to 22% last year and 19% for the 5-year average. 23% of the crop is emerged vs 19% on average. The USDA report bumped old-crop stocks to 2.142 bbu, up 25 mb while putting new-crop carry at 1.967. Both number were close to what the trade expected. On new-crop, they lowered demand for next year, which is standard protocol when production moves lower. Their current forecast shows corn production down over a billion bushels, due to lower planted acreage and a trend-line yield. They raised South American production substantially, with Brazil up 3 mmt to 135 mmt, while Argentine corn production was raised 7 mmt to 59 mmt. Globally, we have solid production and record demand. This is at a time when fertilizer prices are profit-prohibitive. Moving forward, it would seem likely if fertilizer prices remain high, corn prices, particularly for 2027 need to rally a bit. I’m still in a holding pattern on corn sales but I have a fair amount sold. Old-crop, get those offers in and remember you can always come down if need be. Dec26 corn settled up 4 ¼ t $5.02.

Soybeans – Soybeans also rallied on Tuesday after a supportive USDA report. July beans were up 13 ¾ at $12.26 ¾. This was 6 off the high and 15 ½ off the low. July soybean meal was up 3.6 at 328.4, while soy oil was higher, settling up 1.62 at 75.36. Weekly inspections showed bean shipments at 655k mt, which was above expectations again. Bean planting jumped from 33% to 49% planted, which compares to 36% on average. With 20% of the beans emerged, it compares to just 12% on average. The USDA report for beans saw crush for old-crop up 20 mb while exports slid 10 mb. This gave a carry-out of 340 mb, while new-crop stocks were lowered to 310 mb. The increase in acres and thus production was more than offset by crush surging 120 mb according to USDA. This ending stocks number is certainly friendly and due to excellent domestic consumption. World production was stagnant with Brazil’s bean crop staying at 180 mmt, while Argentine soy was pegged at 48 mmt. Keeping flex in this bean market has paid dividends. Selling profit makes a ton of sense as well, so don’t forget these are some of the best prices we’ve seen in years. However, it sure seems like beans want to make a run at $12 again. Nov beans settled at $12.05, up 10 ¼.

mbennett@agmarket.net

Matt Bennett

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