September 28th Grain Marketing Update

Good Morning!

I know many of you are still sitting, while others are going hard at it. We had that rain on Sunday night into Monday but have run hard since Tuesday. While we’d like to be cutting beans, it’s been tough to get them to test as we’ve been cloudy every day. We’ve rolled through enough corn we’re pushing 50% complete. The corn is testing 15-18%, and this is full-season corn that was planted in mid-April. For us, it’s 112 and 114-day corn. Yield is variable but APH-type yields so we’re not complaining. The sun is supposed to shine over the weekend, so hopefully we can get after the beans hard-core. All of our beans will cut with some sunshine, which amounts to around 600 acres. With a rain forecasted for Tuesday night into Wednesday, I doubt we can get them done, especially taking Sunday off. We honor the Sabbath-I know farm on Sunday and we have much of my life. However, Tif and I decided it was time to make an adjustment, and it’s been a good one for our family. Keep me posted on yields-I hope those of you who have been so wet can miss some rains. Keep me posted on harvest. mbennett@agmarket.net.

For the podcast this week, I interviewed Michael Clark with BAM weather and talked about this disparity between the wcb and ecb as well as South American weather. Harvest Stopped by Mud? Managing Delayed Bushels & Anhydrous Risks with BAM Weather

The corn market was steady to up on the week while beans gained a little more ground. Less-than-ideal weather for harvest likely supported beans while most eyes were on the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. Little news came out of Thursday’s meeting, which disappointed the market. However, on Friday there was indication more specifics would be announced on Monday, aiding in the bounce from sharply lower. Outside markets likely provided a positive bias:

• The US Dollar was up .738 at 100.708.
• November crude oil was down 3.67 at 92.41.
• The DOW was up 84 points at 52,163.  

CORN

December ‘26 corn looked as though it may lose ground on the week before rallying off of double-digit losses on Friday. Dec settled at $5.28 ¼, up ¾. This was ¾ off the high and 13 ½ off the low. Dec gained ¾ for the week. The COT report showed funds sold 10k contracts, making their long 404k. While still a big position, it appeared on Friday there was plenty of buying still out there. After the trade seemed disappointed by the lack of news after Thursday’s meeting, we saw corn down hard on Friday. While we didn’t fill the gap down at $5.09 many of us had been watching, Dec was as low as it had been in a month before rebounding. With talk that details of the ‘productive meeting’ would be coming out on Monday, traders seemed pleased with the news and seemed interested in buying again. While I have plenty of reasons to be bullish, Friday should be a great reminder this market can go wherever it wants-and we should always consider risk-management on percentages of our production when profitability is on the table. The quarterly stocks report is out this week. This will give us a good indication of where final stocks were for old-crop. Without a surprise here, and that isn’t out of the question, we likely remain supported due to tight stocks and big demand. I’m still in the same mind-set of putting corn in the bin and keeping plenty open to participating in a rally-but have worst-case scenarios locked in I can live with.

DEMAND

Corn demand was off this past week. Exports came in at 838k, so it was down 200k from a week ago. Ethanol dropped sizably to 1,028 mbpd, while stocks were down. Basis was mixed:

• My local basis: 32 under Dec (no change)

• Decatur: 15 under Dec (no change)

• St. Louis River: 29 under Dec (4 cents wider)

CASH CORN

Cash prices didn’t move much on the week. With harvest ramped up in the east, while activity is slow in the west, we’re seeing big disparities. While basis is of course wide in those areas we see combines rolling, it’s improving in some areas where folks are sitting. With corn prices stalling out, plenty of the blame likely goes to the meeting with President Trump and Xi where we haven’t yet heard about China buying corn. The trade was hopeful it would be part of the discussion, and it very well may have been-but with no announcement, many see it to be a disappointment. Given early yields we’re hearing, it seems this crop could get adjusted lower in October. While it’s tough to be bullish during harvest, it’s also tough to be too hard on this market long-term. I still like filling the bins and if a person sells corn across the scale at some of the better prices we’ve seen in some time, it’s a good way to spread out risk. It all comes down to managing profitability. Fortunately, we have some to manage.

2027 CORN

December 2027 corn ended the week at $5.28, up 2 for the week. Dec27 still looks like a decent price to me when comparing to fertilizer. However, I still feel like we need to see corn prices steady to higher if we’re going to get the acreage we need for 2027. While I’m not bearish corn prices due to this, I still like the idea of covering some of those costs with risk-management to lock in that ratio. It’s complicated as weather issues in South America could certainly drive prices significantly higher, while a meltdown in the inflation story or energy prices taking a bath could be hard on our commodity prices. I personally like those ‘worst-case-scenarios’ being locked in and again it’s nice to have a shot at locking in some income. Here is the link for more info on the AgMarket app. https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Corn Market Theme: The corn market will be watching quarterly stocks this week for surprises as harvest continues. Weather will remain a feature.

BEANS

Beans had another bad Friday going but rebounded later in the date. November beans settled at $13.19, up 1 ½. This was 1 ½ off the high and 21 ½ off the low. Beans rallied 15 ½ cents on the week. October meal rallied 19.3 on the week at 373.9, while soy oil was down .44, settling at 67.26. The COT report showed funds bought 24k contracts, increasing their long to 265k by Tuesday’s close. From a technical standpoint, the bean market closed back above all moving averages, ever-so-slightly. While eyes were on the big meeting when it comes to beans as well, I believe wet weather in the wcb likely aided in the support as much as anything. China was in buying a few beans again this week and most feel comfortable they’re well on their way to buy the 25mmt they committed to. In Iowa, there were bids of up to $2 over the board for beans due to zero harvest activity as crush plants were running too thin on supplies. This could certainly get interesting if current wet weather doesn’t subside soon. South American weather will also be watched closely with dry weather potentially affecting bean planting farther north in Brazil with wet conditions more of an issue for Argentina. Bean prices are impressive and it’s tough to be bearish with much of the news a bullish slant. But protecting some profit seems tough to ignore in my view.

DEMAND

Soybean export sales were off big-time from a week ago at 582k tons. Basis was widening:

• My local beans: 40 under the Nov (no change)

• Decatur: 10 under the Nov (narrowed 10 cents)

• River: 16 under the Nov (narrowed a penny)

CASH BEANS

Cash beans were higher on the week. While some of these posted bids are holding steady now that harvest has started in some areas, it’s interesting to see how beans are moving at this point. We heard some basis at the river much better than what I posted here of 16 under. Basis was reportedly offered at 25 over as beans are getting shipped from other areas like St. Louis. That’s what basis does is get the bushels moved to where they need to be-and in this case, they have to raise their basis at crush plants high enough to get beans they wouldn’t normally get. If you’re in an area with a basis like this and can run even for a day, I’d be taking them up on that hot basis. For the rest of us, there’s always a chance a rising tide eventually lifts other boats, especially if the weather doesn’t change. We could see basis levels really get interesting. Either way, we have excellent prices vs what we’ve seen the last few years. Taking some of those price levels and locking them in makes good sense to me.

2027 BEANS

Nov 2027 beans settled at $12.76 ¾, up 11 on the week. New-crop beans keep working higher as many feel we need more bean acres again this coming year. With wheat prices better than we’ve seen in recent years at decision-making time and the need for more corn acres as well, the acreage battle could be interesting. I still like hedging off some beans at these levels if they’re indeed profitable for you. I can’t imagine situations where they aren’t profitable. Either way, I think some flexibility makes good sense here with the ability to participate if this market gets ramped up. Long story short, this bean price for next fall could see one to two-dollar swings in either direction so manage your farm’s risk accordingly.

Bean Market Theme: The bean market has stayed supported even as harvest activity picks up. Locking in profit while keeping flex seems appropriate to me.

As always, use the AgMarket.Net Profitability App to help you figure your break-evens and put your plan in place:

👉 https://hubs.li/Q03qt2Qd0

Let me know if I can help in any way. These markets are tricky, but with a plan in place, we can take the emotion out and make better decisions.